-Soggy fall continues for Northwest Georgia; updates all day> Flood watch
-Monday: 100% rain chance today, 30% tonight. High of 66, low of 57.
-Tuesday: Partly sunny, then 80% rain chance at night. High of 77, low, 61.
-Rivers: Oostanaula / Etowah-Rome / Etowah-Cartersville
-Latest weather: Extended forecast / Local radar / Regional radar
The Buzz of Northwest Georgia: (click)
-As early voting starts, campaigns planning fourth-quarter blitz are too late.
-First signs of the changing of the (campaign) seasons.
-As the Recovery Begins: Signs are there but is recovery under way here?
-New site for Sun Tan Hut; Richardson coming to Bartow.
-Region's first Tweet Up is Thursday in Cartersville; Rome is next.
-Peaks & Valleys: Furman Bisher, classic cruise in, Southeastern Mills.
John McClellan's high school football picks> Football Report
-John went 8-2 locally last week and 17-4 overall. Next picks due Tuesday.
Calhoun remains in first place in AA football poll> High School Daily
Norman Arey's Sports Roundtable:
-Arey's No-Nos have a disastrous week; upsets rock the college football scene>Arey
Rome Braves/baseball updates> Click
-Upcoming events at State Mutual Stadium. Did someone say wing ding?
-Links to winter baseball leagues.
A critical lesson should have been learned in 2008 by the politically savvy: Campaign early to capture those who want to do the right thing in today's time-starved culture. The advance voting concept was developed to afford voters easy access to the ballots as opposed to the traditional election day swarm. Early voting was pushed aggressively in 2008 and the results showed.
This year, early voting cranks up Tuesday, Oct. 13, three weeks in advance of the Nov. 3 election date. Are candidates and SPLOST organizers and protestors ready? Should they be? Yes, especially given the close votes in recent SPLOST and Rome City Commission contests. Remember how close the last commission races were? Remember how close the second baseball SPLOST was?
To date, we've seen:
-A flood of campaign signs. If you want to see just how many, take a ride around Cedartown. We did Saturday and were stunned by how active the City Commission candidates are this year.
-In Rome, we're seeing some commission candidate signs--and a very fresh round of school board candidate signs, too.
-Facebook campaigns have been under way for months from both candidates and SPLOST supporters. Those are helpful but candidates must get folks pointed that way first. Some online "boosts" also are on chamber and other sites.
-Several online ads are up for commission candidates.
-The first (and so far only) City Commission forum is Monday. The Rome Neighborhood Alliance's candidates' forum is at 7 p.m. at The Cotton Block Hall.
-Several candidates were spotted at weekend events and we think the classic car rain out hurt a few of those grass-roots efforts.
We caution those planning a fourth-quarter "rally." In this era of early voting, those deciding votes might be cast as early as 8:01 a.m. Tuesday--Oct. 13, not Nov. 3.
As for campaign 2010, it is well under way:
-Our next governor: We reference campaign signs in the above item. Already out on Ga. 101 near the Floyd/Polk border: signs of Austin Scott's gubernatorial bid.
-Dempsey on the run: And Katie Dempsey's town hall meetings are under way with the latest one focused on drug abuse set for Tuesday. The early word is the District 13 House race will draw key statewide focus (i.e., dollars and interest from both state parties) in 2010, perhaps more so than before.
Sun Tan Hut joining RiverWalk
Look for Sun Tan Hut to open next to Sundae's and Stella Blu in the RiverWalk center, home to Olive Garden and Shane's Rib Shack. Once open, the R.H. Ledbetter Properties center will have three storefronts remaining. RiverWalk continues to be a success story thanks to the restaurants, the newly rechristened Las Palmas and the smaller shops> RiverWalk
House Speaker at Bartow chamber breakfast Wednesday
House Speaker Glenn Richardson is the scheduled speaker at Wednesday's Business over Breakfast sponsored by the Cartersville-Bartow County Chamber of Commerce. Guests likely will get a previewt of the upcoming legislative session and probably an earful about the budget issues facing the state. The under card of this one might be who is and who isn't attending this gathering from the local Republican Party. The meeting is in the Anheuser-Busch room at the chamber's Main Street office. Tickets are $15 and reservations are required. Call 770-382-1466.
Region's first 'Tweet Up' is Thursday in Cartersville; Rome next
Local "followers" of the exploding Twitter universe are invited to Northwest Georgia's first "Tweet Up" from 6 to 8 p.m. Thursday at Slope's Barbecue off Tennessee Street near the Carmike 12 Theaters from 6 to 8 p.m. A Tweet Up is a free networking session for local Twitter users. Several guests will speak for a few minutes each on how they use Twitter, how it can help local businesses and how easy it is to use. The gathering is sponsored by mRelevance and Hometown Headlines (also partners in the ongoing Social Media Lab; click for details on Linked In on Oct. 14; Facebook on Oct. 22; and blogging on Oct.28). Slope's is offering a pork plate special for Tweet Up guests. For more: Click e-mail or use one of the following Twitter addresses:
>Coming Nov. 10: Rome's first free Tweet Up. Details soon.
AS THE RECOVERY BEGINS, PART IV
The economy: Signs of a recovery are out there but just how soon we realize it throughout Northwest Georgia is still tough to forecast.
By Natalie Simms
While some economic indicators point to the end of the recession, its lingering effects will continue to be felt for many months. Although our local economy seems to be better than most, we're still struggling with high unemployment and decreasing local sales tax revenues.
So when will we start to see signs of a recovery locally?
"Calling the beginnings and ends of recessions is very difficult to do in real time," says Dr. Frank Stephenson, Professor of Economics at Berry College. "But, as suggested by the recent comments from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, there are some indications that the recession is over. Indeed, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan recently suggested that the just finished third quarter will come in with positive GDP (gross domestic product) growth."
According to another local economics professor, Dr. Greg Richardson from Shorter College, the official definition of a recession involves consecutive months of decline in real GDP.
"By that definition, it's possible that the recovery has already started since it's likely that overall output increased slightly in the third quarter this year, and some of the leading indicators that economists follow, such as the stock market, are indicating a recovery," he says.
"Still, the unemployment figures for September were bad, and 43 percent of chief financial officers recently surveyed expect more layoffs at their companies in the next year, according to this week's Economist," Richardson added. "So, if there is a recovery going on, it's going to be a slow and painful one. It'll probably be a couple of years before employment levels reach what they were even 18 months ago."
Stephenson agrees there are many worrisome issues still facing our economy, including the residential and commercial real estate markets as well as the job market.
"Other issues include government policy such as the large and unsustainable budget deficit; increasing protectionist actions as manifest in the recent tariffs on tire imports from China; and the uncertain future associated with possible changes in medical, environmental and tax laws," he says.
"The Fed's extraordinary actions over the past 18 months also raise the possibility of a nasty bout of inflation; this expectation is likely one factor underlying the recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies."
Locally, our economy seems to be stabilized because of our diversity in a number of markets. According to Al Hodge, president and CEO of the Greater Rome Chamber of Commerce, we are better off than many communities.
"We are blessed with a diversified economy and stabilized by education and healthcare," he says. "Both of these sectors have continuous need (customers) and, in some cases, they have external funding. Our manufacturing sector is also diversified and that helps us during this time as well. The bad news, of course, is that unemployment is still far too high and we want and need more good jobs in our community."
Hodge says the outlook is encouraging based on his discussions with local manufacturing executives and information technology-based companies.
"With more jobs from these sectors, our small businesses will benefit and they collectively employ more people in the private sector than anyone else," he says. "We are talking to some business executives who are making plans now for hiring more people and potential new employers who may bring jobs to our community."
In Cartersville and Bartow County, the high unemployment figures have been felt across the board, says Kay Read, President and CEO of the Cartersville-Bartow County Chamber of Commerce.
"All those without jobs are without money to spend and that affects our economy across the board," she says. "But there are signs of encouragement in the last few months, small but significant, in how quickly our vendors are paying bills and having some money to spend on projects."
While a big turnaround may not be close, Read is optimistic that the worst is over.
"People have had to learn how to operate in a different environment and work hard to sustain operations," she says. "I think a lot of businesses were on auto-pilot and didn't have to do much to succeed and now that is no longer the case."
So, when will we start to see some genuine signs of recovery? The experts agree that it is not likely to happen for a while.
Richardson believes one of the major factors in the recession has been psychological and that the recession will be over when enough people "believe" that it's over.
"Irrational exuberance in the real estate and financial markets helped cause the crash in those markets that triggered the recession and the panicky 'crisis mentality' that we've experienced afterwards is helping to prolong it," he says.
"Injecting liquidity into our banks doesn't help much if bank officers are afraid to make loans or while businesses and entrepreneurs don't see any profitable opportunities in their future to apply for loans. In the same way, stimulus programs that feed money into the economy aren't that 'stimulating' if people are too frightened to spend it."
Says Stephenson: "Some of the signs that the recession may be over include recent increases in indexes tracking house prices, consumer confidence and the volume of goods shipped via trucks. Regional Federal Reserve banks such as Chicago, Philadelphia and Richmond have all reported improvements in measures of economic activity for their districts.
"Much of the public, however, may not experience a sense of recovery until unemployment starts to decline and that is not likely to happen for a few more months."
PEAKS & VALLEYS: The highs, lows of Northwest Georgia
Valley to the retirement of Furman Bisher: With his 91st birthday just days away, the South's pre-eminent sports columnist, Furman Bisher of the AJC, has retired. Still vital and healthy and more active than many 50-year-olds, Bisher wrote in his Sunday column that it was time. (Click column) We thank him for his time. Bisher's retirement is not just the loss of a great "read." It just about ends the run of "appointment" columnists who made you want to buy or get the weekday or Sunday paper. Gone are Lewis Grizzard, Celestine Sibley and most of the others. Few distinct, unbiased, unsweetened wordsmiths remain in today's newspapers. As we write the obituary for the American newspaper, one key cause of death should be noted: the failure to maintain, and even develop, the writers who speak directly to the reader.
>As for Bisher: Check out Bisher Unleashed
Peak to downtown Rome's Classic Car Cruise-in series: For 11 years, downtown Rome's First Friday concerts have been certified hits. This year, downtown organizers tried a second act: classic car cruise-ins on the second Saturday evening of the summer months. Result: Instant hit (even if the finale had a rain out). Downtown Cartersville has seen the success of these rolling car shows and this particular brand launched by Rome quickly caught on with the chrome-and-fender set. Here's hoping for an encore in 2010--and beyond. And a side note: Perhaps the new parking deck can provide almost indoor refuge in times of bad weather?
Peak to Southeastern Mills: In this recessionary economy, where cutbacks and layoffs rule the day, Southeastern Mills is going the other direction. In recent weeks, the Rome company has purchased the Eagle Rock (Simpson Grocery) campus as well as a California-based food producer. Aggressive, well-managed companies look beyond the downturn and that's exactly what we're seeing out of Southeastern Mills.
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